Zimbawe on the verge to be a desert

ThereA report compiled by the Met Services using 30 years' data collected at stations at Belvedere, Harare, Bulawayo Goetz, and Beitbridge illustrates that weather extremes are the source of the problems. For the three sites presented, rainfall data shows no consistent trend indicating that changes in temperature and weather patterns were affecting the frequency and severity of rainfall, droughts, floods, access to water and the use of land.

Key findings of temperature changes indicated that:

1) There is a consistent trend of an increase in the occurrence of maximum temperature extremes at all the three stations

2) The chance of minimum temperatures being in the lower 10th percentile declined during the period

3) The observed rate of warming averages 2C per century, and as high as 2.6-2.7C per century at Beitbridge and Bulawayo

4) The number of cold days was observed to be decreasing at a rate of 14-17 days per century, whereas the number of warm days was increasing

5) The study indicated that 2C temperature rise would adversely affect the size of the area suitable for sorghum production in the country (from a simulation model)

"Zimbabwe like most other African countries will be the least prepared to cope with climate change. The threat of increased global warming associated with the release of greenhouse gases is real. Harare and Bulawayo have experienced a warming of about 2 degrees Celsius in the last 30 years and precipitation patterns also show a reduction of 30 percent in rainfall," Ms Chasi said.

She said the findings by the Met Services also showed that floods and droughts in the region are gradually increasing in number and frequency.

The study also indicates that:

i) Water resources are expected to dwindle

ii) The evergreen forests of the Eastern Highlands of Zimbabwe may be reduced to seasonal forests

iii) Southwest Zimbabwe may produce desert conditions

iv) Maize yields are likely to decrease considerably

v) Climate change may negatively impact on our efforts to achieve sustainable development

vi) Climate change may lead to declining water resources, reduced agricultural productivity, spread of vector-borne diseases to new areas, high risks to forests (outbreaks of fires), drop in fish population and increased flooding from sea level rise and heavier rainfall

Zimbabwe in the just-ended rainfall season experienced weather conditions, which were highly unusual and unprecedented in many areas. In the first half of the rainfall season (Oct to Dec), the rainfall in some parts of the country was the highest on record while drought conditions continued to worsen in the second half -- January to March.

There is nothing similar in recorded weather history to rainfall recorded in Zimbabwe last December. Since 1987, Zimbabwe has recorded six warmest years and this is consistent with a warming trend, which was being experienced in other parts of the continent and elsewhere in the world.

The level of one of Bulawayo's major water supply dams, Umzingwane has been declining since 1977,the 80s, the 90s and onwards in the 2000s owing largely to extreme weather changes -- severe droughts coupled with flooding in the others years.

Climate experts say Africa will be hit hardest and earliest when it is the rich industrialised countries in the North that are responsible for 75 percent of green house gas emissions.

Africa only emits about 3,6 percent of the total carbon dioxide emissions per year. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that Africa will suffer the most from the impacts of climate change.

Climate experts say Africa is steadily warming, climate is changing and that there will be further changes in rainfall and temperatures. Africa is warmer by 0,5 degrees Celsius than it was a century ago. Climate experts say Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change because of various factors such as widespread poverty, the unsustainable use of natural resources, over-dependence on rain-fed agriculture and weak institutional support structures.

Global surface temperatures have warmed by up to 0,8C since the turn of century and climate experts say human activities are largely responsible for altering the atmospheric chemistry, particularly CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion.

Global sea surface temperatures have risen while climate change statistics indicate that globally the sea level has risen by 10-25 cm in the last 100 years.


Climate change studies also show an increase in GHG concentrations from 1980s and extremes in climate over the same period. They say the main impact of climate change on the continent will be increased frequency of natural disasters, droughts, floods and other weather extremes that lead to loss of life, economic disruptions, social unrest and forced migration as well as major environmental problems.

Prolonged drought periods will cause stress on water resources and reduce food security due to diminished agricultural productivity, increase outbreaks of vector borne diseases and other health impacts. In addition, climate change poses a threat to forestry, water resources, biodiversity and other natural resources.

Globally, precipitation patterns have changed. Rainfall patterns in Zimbabwe also show similar trends with rainfall characteristics such as onset, dry spell, rainfall intensity, rainfall amounts showing signs of change.

Zimbabwe is experiencing an increase in the frequency of floods. Cyclone-induced flooding included cyclone Bonita 1996, Eline 2000, Japhet 2003 and another in 2007.

"With predictions that agricultural productivity in Zimbabwe could decrease by up to 30 percent because of increases in climatic extremes, climate change poses one of the most serious food security challenges of the 21st century in the country," Ms Chasi said.

"The high prevalence and intensity of poverty may amplify the negative impacts of climate change, particularly among rural and peri-urban populations, with unprecedented consequences on an already degraded environment."


are damning findings by experts in zimbabwe which shows that by 2030 zimbabwe will be like namibia which is being slowly engulfed by the Kalahari desert .

Climatic conditions collected at major weather stations in the country showed a worrying trend.